products, and ordinarily certain forms of lumber. The second group was of a manufactured character and comprised chiefly building materials, railway iron and equipment and machinery. It would naturally have been expected, therefore, that the advantage, if any, gained by our producers, would have been gained by those who were engaged in producing these particular classes of commodities.

Considering first the gross statistics of trade with the South American countries which entered into reciprocity agreements with us under the McKinley Act, it seems in most cases to be a matter of great difficulty to recognize any particular effect directly traceable to our new treaty arrangements. Cuba, however, forms an exception. In the case of that Island it appears that during a treaty period lasting from September 1, 1891, to August 27, 1894, exports from the United States largely increased, rising from $13,084,415 during the fiscal year ending June 30, 1890, and $12,224,888 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 1891, to $17,953,570 during the fiscal year 1892, and to $24,157,698 during 1893. Exports fell off again during the year ending June 30, 1894, when they were only $20,125,321, but the effect of the termination of the treaty was apparently seen during the year July 1, 1894 to July 1, 1895, when exports amounted only to $12,807,661, although a part of this decline must be attributed to general disturbances in the Island. There was thus a marked upward increase of trade with Cuba during the life of the reciprocity treaty. Taking the fiscal year ending June 30, 1893, when our trade reached its largest proportions, some idea of the effects of the agreement may be gained by examining the details of our exports. Of the $24,157,698, which represented our gross shipments to Cuba, the largest items were wheat flour to the amount of $2,821,557, general machinery $2,792,000, miscellaneous manufactures of iron and steel $1,344,000, lard $424,000, lumber $1,192,000, hams $761,000, illuminating and lubricating oils $546,000, bacon $557,000, and

potatoes $554,000.13 In short, it thus appears that our large increase in exports to Cuba was really found in those particular lines which were favored under the reciprocity treaty. On the other hand, our other exports to Cuba were in exceedingly small amounts. As to imports from Cuba during 1893 (when the gross amount brought to the United States was valued at $78,706,506 as against at total of $53,801,591 in 1890), it appears that the increase was narrowly confined to a very few articles. Sugar alone in 1893 amounted to $60,637,000, or more than the gross aggregate of our imports from Cuba prior to the treaty, while unmanufactured tobacco was about $9,000,000, a result which makes it evident that little else besides these two commodities came from the Island during the year in question. The falling off in American exports after the abrogation of the treaty occurred chiefly in flour, meat products and machinery, while the decline in imports (which fell to $52,871,259 in 1895) was largely a falling off in sugar. That commodity again reached substantially the level it had found before the McKinley bill was passed.

When, however, we pass from a study of Cuban trade it becomes very difficult to trace the influence of reciprocity further. In the case of Brazil, it does not appear that we were able to develop our export trade to that country to any considerable extent. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 1890, we sent Brazil merchandise valued at $11,972,214, while for the following fiscal year this amount rose to $14,120,246. The new treaty went into effect April 1, 1891. Yet for the year July 1, 1891, to June 30, 1892, the gross exports to Brazil were but $14,291,873, or substantially what they had been during the previous year. For the following year they even declined to $12,388,124 and only slightly recovered in 1894, when they amounted to $13,866,006. The treaty with Brazil was abrogated August 27, 1894, yet for the year July 1, 1894

13 House Report, No. 2263, 54th Congress, 1st session, pp. 245 ff.

June 30, 1895, the trade grew to $15,165,079, a figure considerably larger than any attained during the life of the reciprocity agreement. For the years 1896, 1897 and 1898 exports continued substantially what they had been. On the other hand, a certain direct result of the treaty seems to be traceable in the imports from Brazil. These had amounted to $59,318,756 for the year ending June 30, 1890-a sum which was about normal, as the trade was then moving between the two countries. Yet, for the fiscal year, 1891, imports grew with a sudden bound to $83,230,595 and for 1892 to $118,633,604. They fell off in 1893 to $76,222,138 and in 1894 to $79,360,159. Much may be learned concerning the Brazilian trade by a detailed consideration of its statistics. From such a comparison, it appears that the main export articles in which a slight increase during the years 1891 and 1892 occurred were wheat flour, iron and steel and manufactures thereof, mineral oil and provisions. Yet nearly all of these articles show a decline from 1893 to 1894, and a more marked decline during the following year. Turning to imports, however, the effect of the treaty in certain specified articles is at once manifest. Of these the chief was coffee. Imports of coffee from Brazil rose from $45,664,127 in 1890 to $95,751,724 in 1892, thus more than doubling. Hides and skins, however, showed little or no increase, nor did India rubber and crude gutta percha do better. Wool imports were substantially unchanged, and sugar showed only a moderate movement which, however, had really been inaugurated prior to the negotiation of the treaty. Upon a strict analysis of the figures, there appears little evidence to warrant the supposition that the reciprocity treaty affected imports of sugar from Brazil in any way whatever. Practically the only result produced by it was, as has just been seen, in coffee.

Trade with British Guiana effect resulting from the treaty. and 1890 our exports to that

showed a barely perceptible During the years 1888, 1889 country had, as a rule, been

well under $2,000,000 per annum. During 1891 and 1892 very little change in the export figures is observable, but they finally rose in 1893 to about $2,000,000 and in 1894 to $2,414,720. The treaty ceasing its operation on August 27th of that year, this slight improvement was lost and exports fell in 1895 to $1,705,631, substantially the figure reached by the trade in 1888. On the side of imports, not very much better results were secured. They amounted to $4,326,975 in 1890, and 1892 found the quantity of goods sent out practically unchanged. In 1893 it rose to $5,029,178, fell off as quickly in the following year to its old level, and in 1895 received a severe setback, possibly owing to the abrogation of the agreement. From the detailed statistics it appears that the small gain made by our trade with British Guiana in 1893 and 1894 is to be found on the side of exports chiefly in wheat flour, provisions, and manufactures of wood, and on that of imports for the most part in sugar, which constituted practically the whole of the merchandise coming from that country.

Quite the same showing was made by Porto Rico. Our exports to that Island were $2,297,538 in 1890 and were very little higher in any successive year until 1894. when they rose to $2,720,508. They fell only slightly upon the termination of the agreement, being $2,102,094 in 1896. Imports from Porto Rico to the United States even declined during the life of the agreement. They were $4,053,626 in 1890, sank to $3,248,007 in 1892, rose slightly in 1893 and fell again to $3,135,634 in 1894. The termination of the treaty seemed, as in the case of several other countries, to have the effect of administering a sharp check to trade. In 1895 our imports from Porto Rico were only $1,506,512, an amount less than any taken by us from the Island for several years prior to the reciprocity negotiations. In 1893 a slight increase in sugar imports is observable, other commodities falling off at about the same time. Reviewing the detailed exports, it appears that some gains were made in bread stuffs during 1892, 1893 and 1894,

and that there was a slight growth in manufactures of iron and steel. Other commodities showed little or no change, the tendency being even to decline during the treaty period.

With the British West Indies a larger volume of trade was carried on than with any other of the South Ameican countries except Cuba and Brazil. Yet there was little perceptible result from the reciprocity treaty even here. Exports to the British West Indies were $8,288,786 in 1890 and $9,779,138 in 1891. Inasmuch as the reciprocity treaty went into effect February 1, 1892, its results should have been clearly perceptible during the fiscal year July 1, 1892-June 30, 1893. Yet, for this year, our exports to the British West Indies amounted to only $8,044,846. The treaty like the others came to a close on August 7, 1894, and our exports for the year July 1, 1894-June 30, 1895, fell slightly, amounting to $7,764,178, about the same figure they had reached in 1888. They rose again in 1896 and continued on substantially the same level as before the negotiation of the treaty. Imports from the British West Indies had been anywhere from $12,000,000 to $15,000,000 annually during years just prior to the reciprocity negotiations. They were $16,293,184 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 1891, and fell to $12,440,132 for the following year, the treaty, as already remarked, having gone into effect February 1, 1892. For 1893, exports were $16,028,592-a figure smaller than that for 1891. The termination of the agreement reduced imports to $9,777,444, but they recovered speedily, reaching $12,285,885 in 1897, or only a little less than the returns for 1892. Detailed figures for the export trade with the British West Indies show a slight increase in manufactures of iron and steel during 1892-1895, and another slight increase in cloth for the same years. Provisions also rose very slightly, and a perceptible increase occurred in tobacco. On the side of imports, sugar rose very perceptibly in 1893, at which time it amounted to $9,487,434. Fruits and nuts also increased in 1893, and the succeeding year there was