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tions. I know that Foster's forecast and some other forecasts cover periods of 6 weeks and sometimes a period of 3 months.

Mr. SANDLIN. The almanac forecasts cover the period of a year. Mr. SINCLAIR. Is the Weather Bureau doing anything along this line?

Dr. CLARK. The Weather Bureau is open-minded as to the possibilities of long-range forecasting, the kind you speak of, and is studying and investigating every possible method of arriving, if possible, at some useful longer range forecasts than the 36-hour or the weekly outlook which are now given out.

Mr. SINCLAIR. You do not think that Dr. Earl R. Hicks, who is a constituent of our friend, Mr. Cannon, has any better information on the weather than the Weather Bureau does?

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Dr. CLARK. Our views, in accord with those of leading meteorologists throughout the world, are that up to the present time no sufficiently conclusive scientific basis has been found on which to make successful forecasts for months, seasons, or years in advance. have the most complete and accurate weather information that is available, of course. The leading meteorologists throughout the world and in this country have not yet developed the science of longrange forecasting to the stage where the Government would be justified in issuing such forecasts to the people at the present time. Mr. CANNON. You have statistics running, back, for a great many years?

Dr. CLARK. Yes, sir.

Mr. CANNON. Have you discovered any cycle of recurrence which would indicate that the past records are of value?

Dr. CLARK. We have some of our statisticians and climatologists studying such records as are available over a long series of years. There has not yet been shown any conclusive or definite cycle which would justify pronouncement to the public of possible long-range forecasts. The principal difficulty, if there is any close relationship of that character, is the short period of the statistics or data available. In the Weather Bureau we have only some 60 or 70 years of data available. In some cities they have temperature and rainfall observations extending back 100 years, or somewhat more, but that is a short time statistically and meteorologically speaking. If we had the data for 1,000 years, we would be in a much better position.

Mr. CANNON. What is there in this impression that we sometimes get that the climate is changing? It seems that in the days of our youth the winters were colder and longer. Is there anything to substantiate that view?

Dr. CLARK. Discoveries of the past, as established by suggestions along the line of your thought, do show that in certain groups of years the winters tend to become warmer over a cycle of 30 or 40 years. Then the pendulum swings to a point where we have a series of colder winters. Studies by climatologists tend to show that we are now in a series of warm winters, or in a warm winter cycle. However, those studies do not necessarily indicate that over a very long period of time our weather or winters are changing noticeably.

Mr. THURSTON. Does a shift in the Japan Current or the Gulf Stream have any effect on our climate?

Dr. CLARK. It is maintained by some students of oceanography that some shifts in the currents do have that effect, but our forecasting work does not indicate that there is any substantial or material change on that account.

Mr. THURSTON. Those changes, if they are temporary or periodic, would affect what changes in the weather?

Dr. CLARK. That has not been ascertained. The Gulf Stream relatively, is very much like a pencil line along the coast (indicating on map) in a 3,000-mile body of water. It is difficult to prove or disprove that there would be any substantial effect on the weather on that account.

Mr. THURSTON. I have heard it asserted that the cutting of timber has had something to do with the volume of rainfall. Is there anything in that theory?

Dr. CLARK. There have been studies made along that line, beginning some 20 years ago, under a cooperative arrangement between the Weather Bureau and the Forest Service. We established a station at Wagon Wheel Gap, in the Rocky Mountains. For awhile we kept rainfall records and run-off records through the measurement of streams in two watersheds. We then cleared one watershed, and studied the conditions for a number of years. Those were valuable and useful studies, but they did not show that there was any substantial change in the volume of rainfall.

Mr. THURSTON. Your branch of the Government has not been able to successfully harness tornadoes and cyclones yet?

Dr. CLARK. No, sir; those fearful forces of nature are not controllable.

Mr. SINCLAIR. Of course, there is a great variation in the amount of rainfall in certain localities from season to season: Have you determined in any way why that is? The statistics will show that the rainfall at St. Paul, for instance, was as low as 9 inches one season. Dr. CLARK. Rain must come from water vapor or moisture in the air. The greater amount of rain that falls in the area that you speak of, and in other areas, is transported there

Mr. SINCLAIR (interposing). By winds?

Dr. CLARK. By winds due to storms and cyclonic movements. It is transported from distant areas. That in part answers the previous question as to the effect locally of forestation and deforestation in recent decades or centuries.

EFFECT OF SUN RADIATION

Mr. SINCLAIR. Has your Bureau made any study of the effect of sun radiation on our weather?

Mr. SANDLIN. That is a matter in which Dr. Abbot, of the Smithsonian Institution, is so much interested.

Dr. CLARK. Yes, sir. Those studies over a series of years have been made as scientific project by the Smithsonian Institution. We have not engaged in that work, or duplicated it.

Mr. SANDLIN. You have not taken sides on it.

Mr. SINCLAIR. If it affects the weather, you would be interested in it.

Dr. CLARK. It is recognized that solar energy in the form of thermal radiation which enters and penetrates the atmosphere of the earth is the primary source of all the phenomena of weather-and of life itself on our planet, and the more we can learn about it the better. We are interested, and I might say that if and when it can be shown that it will substantially and materially indicate the march. of our weather, we will be glad to utilize such discoveries.

Mr. THURSTON. Has your Bureau made any study as to whether the clearing up of the lands in the arid regions has changed the rainfall in those regions?

Dr. CLARK. With the short period of years over which these data are available, it has been unable to more or less clearly show that. If we had available, I would say, data for a long period of years the statistics might show it, but they are not adequate now.

Mr. SANDLIN. Is there anything you wish to say with reference to any particular items in this breakdown of the estimate of $1,806,519, on page 53 of your justifications?

REPAIRS TO BUILDINGS

Dr. CLARK. There is one item that is probably subject to further explanation, although the notes cover it, and that is the actual reduction of $10,282 which was made by the Budget Bureau. That item covers repairs of Weather Bureau buildings.

At the request of the Public Works Administration the Weather Bureau on June 27, 1933, submitted 52 projects of work under the heading of "Construction, reconstruction, remodeling, reconditioning, etc., which could be undertaken at once or in the near future if funds were made available from appropriations for public works under the Industrial Recovery Act." The projects submitted by the Bureau contemplated the repair and improvements to 42 observatory buildings and a number of storm warning towers located throughout the United States. The total estimated cost was $25,165. Of this, $20,000 was approved and authorized on August 1, 1933, by the Public Works Administration, necessitating the elimination of a part of the work originally proposed. However, later, on November 18, 1933, the Public Works Administration approved three additional allotments estimated to cost $13,840, of which $12,000 was for protecting Weather Bureau property at Cape Henry, Va., from beach erosion, a dangerous cutting away of the shore having resulted from a tropical storm of great intensity.

During the past several years the painting, repair, and alterations of the Bureau's buildings and towers have averaged in cost more than $10,000 annually. It has been possible, however, with available appropriations, to perform only the minimum amount of work necessary to prevent serious deterioration. Interior improvements, greatly needed, but not essential to protect the buildings, as well as the ordinary outside painting and repair, are being effected with the P.W.A. allotments provided. In view of this assistance, the Budget Bureau has reduced the 1935 appropriation estimate by $10,282. Since the Public Works funds will all be expended during this fiscal year, such reduction will require that ordinary painting and repair will have to be postponed during 1935. Proper maintenance of the buildings thereafter will, of course, require restoration of the cut in the regular appropriation later on.

As to the Cape Henry building, while the property has a very substantial protecting bulkhead in front of the retaining wall, the beach was so eroded that the tide encroaches upon the property to a somewhat hazardous extent. For its protection, we secured the cooperation and assistance of the Chief of Engineers, United States Army, and we are using that money under the public-works project to protect the building. We have some 48 Weather Bureau buildings located throughout the United States which were built during the past 40 years, and such properties and buildings are now valued at more than $1,000,000. The buildings were economically constructed, and are being economically administered.

COOPERATION WITH ARMY, NAVY, AND COAST GUARD

Mr. THURSTON. Do you cooperate with the Coast Guard Service and the Navy?

Dr. CLARK. Yes, sir; we have close, cordial, and helpful cooperation with the Navy, the Army, and the Coast Guard.

Mr. THURSTON. Do you have short-wave sets in your stations? Dr. CLARK. We have not operated radio communications and where we contact the Department of Commerce in the airways work, that Department provides the communications on the airways; and when we send our reports by radio we utilize the Navy Radio distribution service.

ALLOTMENT FROM PUBLIC WORKS ADMINISTRATION FOR REPLACING RIVER GAGES

Mr. SANDLIN. I see you have also had allocated $150,000 for replacing river gages.

Dr. CLARK. Yes, sir. That is a Public Works project. We have a very comprehensive and valuable service which is incorporated in the subappropriation "General weather service and research." I speak of our river and flood service, which extends throughout the United States along the principal river systems, and is maintained for the purpose of giving forecasts and warnings of river stages and flood conditions. I have a chart here that will show the very comprehensive distribution of that service [exhibiting a chart].

Mr. SANDLIN. Each one of those dots indicates where a gage is located?

Dr. CLARK. Each one of those dots or small circles shows where a gage is located, and each of the larger circles indicates a river district center. For instance, the Mississippi drainage area is the most important and the most comprehensive of this service, and all along the Mississippi and its principal tributaries are key Weather Bureau district centers from which warnings are given. You see one at Shreveport, on the Red River, and all along those lines (indicating. Mr. CANNON. There are three classes of dots.

Dr. CLARK. The large circles indicate the Weather Bureau district centers; the solid dots indicate the location of Weather Bureau gages and observers, and the circles indicate the location of gages of the Army engineers and the Geological Survey, with whom we closely cooperate in this project.

I give you this preliminary picture before coming back to my answer to your inquiry as to that $150,000 Public Works project. On September 9, 1933, the Public Works Administration authorized and made available funds in the amount of $150,000 for a project of work contemplating the replacement of present inadequate and obsolete river gage equipment at approximately 150 points located on rivers in 33 States throughout the country.

Since 1872 the technical personnel of the Weather Bureau have made river stage forecasts largely by what may be termed empivaci or rule-of-thumb. These forecasts, especially the flood forecasts, have been of a high order of excellence, but it is known they can be still further improved by combining with the present methods what is known as a volumetric method and reducing the entire plan of forecasting to more nearly a mathematical basis. To accomplish this. some recording gages are necessary and the Bureau is now engaged in constructing recording gages at strategic points on the various rivers of the country. There will not be a great number of recorders, but at other places where the Bureau now maintains gages that are not of a substantial nature and are frequently out of adjustment, causing complaint and criticism by engineers, a type of gage will be put in that is as nearly permanent as the varying circumstances will make possible. Sufficient funds have heretofore not been available to maintain the old gages in the best condition but the smaller cost of upkeep for the new type equipment will, it is thought, enable the Bureau to effect its necessary inspection and repair without additional

money.

No estimates of appropriation for the types of gages now being installed have at any time been submitted to the Congress, because of the large expense involved, but the need of these gages has been recognized for many years. The work being done with the funds authorized by the Public Works Administration is in addition to that covered by the regular annual appropriations of the Weather Bureau.

This $150,000 project has enabled us to put to work unemployed out in the States, throughout these river basins, to replace, repair, and re-erect more permanent and more suitable gages-a need that we have felt for many years, but have been unable to consummate by reason of the necessity, which we have all appreciated, for the strictest economy in the administering of the appropriations.

Mr. THURSTON. How do you employ the persons who have charge of each one of those gages?

Dr. CLARK. The gages are permanent, and the records are read by local observers, to whom we give a nominal compensation of from $5 to $15 a month, in some cases. In other cases the gages are not read daily, but only when the rivers are rising and floods are threatening; and the observers are paid 25 to 50 cents an observation. Mr. THURSTON. It does not take a full-time employee? Dr. CLARK. No, sir.

Mr. CANNON. There is quite a variation, Doctor, in the amounts allotted to the various States. For example, you allocate to Louisiana, which contains the mouth of the river and the Delta, only $6,000, and you allocate to Texas $10,000.

Mr. SANDLIN. Probably there are so many more miles of stream. I guess that explains that.

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