nelles will undoubtedly bring about direct commercial relations between American ports and Odessa. It would be very easy to divert to this service some of the English liners, as well as the boats of the Russian-American line. The establishment of such a direct communication route through a very convenient, as far as railroad connections are concerned, Russian port, will make it possible for many persons to leave the country, if they so desire. These predictions, while partly theoretical and speculative, are thoroughly in keeping with what we know of Russia in the past and the information we get about her in the present. All signs seem to indicate that in a very short time the Ellis Island officials will have to resume some of their work, and that the cessation of hostilities will bring on a new flood of immigration, the bulk of which will come from Russia. North American Review. 201: 667-70. May, 1915 Effects of the War Upon Immigration. George Harvey The effects of the war upon European immigration to this country, which we have hitherto discussed prospectively in these pages, are now sufficiently revealed to provide a basis for confident estimate; for the forecast already made appears to be substantially justified. There are now at hand statistics of migration to and from the United States for the first half of the present fiscal year, which corresponds with the second half of the last calendar year, from July 1 to December 31, 1915. The war started at the beginning of August, so that the half-year covers the first five months of it. As was to be expected, migration from the belligerent countries has practically ceased. That from Scandinavia at the north and from Italy-especially southern Italy-and Greece at the south has continued, though with some most suggestive modifications, much more marked in the latter than in the former. Indeed, the change caused by the war in the volume of immigration from the northern countries has thus far been almost negligible; scarcely greater than the fluctuations from year to year before the war began. The total immigration to this country from those sources in the six months was 80,068. If we multiply that number by two we get 160,136 for a whole year at the same rate. Now the figures for the fiscal year 1911-1912, from the same countries, were 193,702, so that the decline due to the war, if it be entirely due to it, is about 17 per cent. That is a considerable decline, but it is by no means extraordinary, and might readily be attributable to other causes in a time of profound peace. The immigration from southern Italy and Greece during the same period was only 37,206, or at the rate of 74,412 for a full year. In the year 1911-1912 it was 167,396; so that the war has apparently caused a decline of more than 55 per cent, or more than three times as great as that in the case of the northern countries. That is not surprising; since we may safely estimate the expectation of Italy and Greece being dragged into the war to be more than three times as great as the similar expectation or fear concerning Scandinavia, and the moral, legal, and other restraint upon emigration to be correspondingly greater. Perhaps still more suggestive are the statistics for the same period and the same regions of migration in the opposite direction-the refluent tide of emigration from America back to Europe. In the case of the northern countries this was 19,590, or 24.3 per cent of the immigration, showing a net settlement in this country of 60,478 in six months. That was at the rate of 39,180 emigration in a full year, against 38,717 in 1911-12, or about 20 per cent. The increase of proportionate return migration from 20 per cent to 24.3 per cent may be regarded as negligible. But in the case of the southern countries what do we find. While only 37,206 persons came hither, no fewer than 84,300 returned to Europe; or 226.6 per cent more than two and a quarter times as many as those who came hither. There was thus a net loss in that element of our population of 47,094. That emigration was, moreover, at the rate of 168,600 a year. It is true that the return tide of this element has always been much larger than that of the northerners. Thus in 1911-12, while 167,396 came hither, 110,204, or 65.8 per cent, returned. But the figures of a year at war-rates show the percentage increased from 65.8 to 226.6. If the figures for the last half-year are repeated in the present half-year there will have returned to Europe in 1914-15 more than a thousand more than the entire number that came hither in 1911-12. This contrast between the two parts of Europe becomes the more significant when we remember that while in 1883 fully 95 per cent of our entire European immigration came from the northern and western countries, in 1912 fully 79 per cent came from the southern and eastern. As a result of, or at least during, the war there has been so marked a reaction that, in the six months which we are considering, instead of 70 per cent from the south and east, we received of our gross immigration 68 per cent from the north and west. Far more striking still are the figures of net immigration. Less than one-fourth of the number of northerners returned, while more than two and a quarter times the number of southerners did so. The result was a net immigration all told of only 12,844, to which the net immigration from north and west bore the proportion of 488 per cent. Survey. 34: 170. May 22, 1915 European Immigration on the Increase Is European immigration into this country beginning to set toward normal? During the week ending May 11 more aliens arrived at the port of New York than during any other week since the war began. The number was 5,362. During the week ending April 11 only 3,642 arrived; during that ending December II, 3,829. Though the trend may be upward, it is far from the "before-the-war" height. Over 31,000 immigrants arrived during the week ending April 11, 1914. The majority of those arriving during the week ending May II came from neutral nations. Several of the countries sending the most are the very ones likely to become involved in the war. A large proportion of the arrivals are women and children joining their husbands and fathers here. Many of the women are believed to be bringing their children to escape war conditions abroad. As usual, Italians predominate. The Greeks stand second in the list. It is found that less than 20 per cent of Greek men bring their women and children here. Over 600 are from Scandinavia. A few come from Great Britain. From the Bulgarian states there are occasional Albanese, Bulgarians and Slovenian immigrants, with a few Austrians and Hungarians. Belgian women and children arrive every few days on English and Dutch ships. Several parties of French soldiers have arrived. A few of these have been discharged from the army on account of injury. |