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of foreign conquest with an increase of militarism and a greater and greater loss of self-government at home; it will also overthrow the Monroe Doctrine, and establish a foreign alliance.

5. That a continuance of the existing federal government will continue the existence of the trusts.

6. And with the continuance of the trusts and the Administration's foreign policy above outlined, there will be a "hell upon earth" for nearly all the people who are not trust magnates.

B. The Anti-Imperialist Republicans and Gold Democrats.

The Republicans who are opposed to the overthrow of the Republic and the establishment of an Empire make the following reply to the claims of the Administration, and in this they are joined by nearly all of the Gold Democrats:

Even if the first three claims of the Administration are true, yet its policy of foreign conquest is so great an evil that every possible effort should be made to defeat it.

They furthermore claim that if Mr. Bryan is elected the Senate will for two years, at least, be so constituted that a free silver law by the United States alone at 16 to 1 cannot be enacted. And many are claiming that if the lower house of Congress is carried by the Democrats, Populists and Silver Re

publicans, there will be so many Gold Democrats among them that a free silver act cannot pass the House.

C. The Prohibitionists.

The Prohibition party replies to the claims of the Administration by pointing to the latter's record on the Liquor Question and is doing its utmost to defeat the Administration.

D. The Socialist Party.

The Socialist Party disagrees with the claims of the bimetallists as to the relation between money and prices and prosperity, but agrees with them in denouncing the foreign policies of the Administration. As to the trusts, it claims that as they are now run they are a serious evil. The remedy advocated by the Socialists is the immediate public ownership of all the means of production and distribution. This advocacy of so tremendous an immediate change marks the difference between the Socialist Party and the Socialists who are not within the party because of their belief that progress is to come step by step instead of by the revolutionary change advocated by the Socialist Party.

Such, in brief, are the broad claims and denials of the several parties.

The following pages are devoted to the evidence. Every intelligent citizen is asking for it. He wants to know the truth. He does not care to read mere claims and abuse; he demands proof. To meet this want, the following pages

have been carefully prepared. The writer was a member of the Republican party up to 1896, and knows the desire of his fellow-men for facts, not fancies. In selecting the evidence he has been guided by his experience as a lawyer, as a student of economics and political science and as editor of legal and other works.

DIVISION II.

THE EVIDENCE.

PART I.

Hard Times till Autumn of 1897.

The reports of Bradstreet and of Dun show that during the month following the election of 1896 there were worse bankruptcies in the United States than for the preceding November; for December the same condition prevailed; for the three months ending April 1, 1897, the liabilities in business failures exceeded those of the same period for 1895; and for the three months ending July 1, 1897, the liabilities were 8 per cent greater than for 1896, 6 per cent greater than for 1895, and 16 per cent greater than for 1894-a time when the unemployed were SO numerous that "Commonweal armies" marched toward national capital; the great coal

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strikes and railway strikes were in progress, and commerce was so disorganized that the bank clearings were lower than during 1893-the panic year -by 25 per cent. Yet in 1897 the liabilities in business failures exceeded those of this period by 16 per cent. And this occurred during the sixth, seventh and eighth months which followed the reaffirmance of the gold standard policy.

And industrial conditions were equally bad throughout the entire gold standard world.

Then came a gradual change for the better, and this change extended throughout the gold standard world. It was as follows:

PART II.

Prosperity and Its Causes.

HAS EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE GOLD
STANDARD WORLD.

It is known to everyone that from about July, 1897, till early summer of this year there was in the United States a great stimulation in practically every line of industry. This is so fully admitted that it is unnecessary to present any proof. The bank clearings, howover, are set forth in Chart II., on a succeeding page; and they show a steady rise in the volume of business in the United States till about May of this year. In Europe there has been a similar stimulation of industry. The market report in the New York World, on Jan. 8, 1900, said:

Germany has passed through an era of industrial inflation, such as took place in the United States in the years 1898 and 1899. A craze for speculation seized upon the people of the German Empire about the same time it became epidemic in this country. Public credulity was taken advantage of by the same character of unscrupulous promoters as those who floated the great industrial hoaxes in this country the two years which have just passed.

In England, France, Japan and all other gold standard countries prices have risen and business has been stimulated. The extent of the rise in the price level in England, Germany, Japan and the United States is set forth in

the following chart. The rise in prices is practically the same in all these countries, except as monopolies interfere.

In short, THE RISING PRICES AND PROSPERITY HAVE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE GOLD STANDARD WORLD.

CHART I.

The price levels in each of the gold standard countries rise almost simultaneously, and during a fall the same is true. The following are the price levels in several countries. The differences are largely due to differences in the articles included in the average of prices. Observe that the general rise in prices during the past three years extended to the other gold standard countries.

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B. THEREFORE THE PROSPERITY COULD NOT HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY THE MCKINLEY ADMINISTRATION.

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onstrate; therefore, this widespread prosperity was not caused by the McKinley Administration, but is due to some other cause.

2. Fallacy in the Administration's Argument.

The Administration's claim, as set forth in its platform, is that the cause of the prosperity in the United States is its law increasing the protective duties and its law concerning the gold standard. [Platform quoted in note.*]

and its labor distressed and unemployed. The Democrats had no other plan with which to improve the ruinous conditions which they had themselves produced [not so; it was the Cleveland Democrats who were in office, and they did not support the demands of the Bryan Democrats] than to coin silver at the ratio of 16 to 1 [i. e., increase the

But these laws did not cause the prosperity in Germany, France, England and the other gold standard countries. The Administration's law as to the gold standard simply reaffirmed what already existed (the law itself is quoted on page 21); furthermore, it was not enacted until March 14 of this year, and it surely did not cause the prosperity in the preceding years. The protective tariff law was enacted in 1897, and it could not have caused prosperity in the countries whose goods it shut out.

3.

Effect of an Understanding of the
Administration's Bogus Claim.

From the foregoing it is clear that the McKinley Administration did not cause the prosperity. The prosperity has existed throughout the gold standard world. Yet the Administration is asking for re-election on the ground that it caused the prosperity. And this bogus claim is the most effective argument the Administration has. But when the voters discover the truth, what then? IT MUST SHAKE THEIR CONFIDENCE AS TO THE FUTURE PROSPERITY OF THE COUNTRY UNDER THE RULE OF THESE DECEIVERS-men who have fostered the giant trusts. An examination of the situation shows these important facts: (1) That there is a growing depression, and by continuing the same men in power-by continuing the same laws and executive policies-the depression I will continue to grow worse; (2) and trusts are getting from the government just what they want, and their policies will be continued if the Admin

volume of money]. The Republican party, denouncing this plan as sure to produce conditions even worse than those from which relief was sought, promised to restore prosperity by means of two legislative measures-A PROTECT

IVE TARIFF AND A LAW MAKING GOLD THE

STANDARD OF VALUE. The people, by great majorities, issued to the Republican party a commission to enact these laws. This commission has been executed, and the Republican promise is

istration is continued. In short, the Administration is controlled by the trusts. They have secured the enactment of laws which are directly against the welfare of the country, but the people are more or less deceived through the stimulation of industry which has existed during the past three yearsexisted in spite of the special privileges granted by the Administration. Stated another way, the Administration's policies are against the welfare of the country at large, but owing to the return of prosperity, which it did not cause, it is acting the highwayman by attempting to "hold up" the business men, saying: "We caused the prosperity, and if you reject our policies as to trusts and the government of Porto Rico and the Philippines, you go to perdition." However, when our people see that the stimulation of business was not due to the Administration they will turn it out of power and its rule as a highwayman will cease. The majority against it will be so great that the present leaders will be forced into obscurity, and the Republican party will reorganize on higher ground under the leadership of such Anti-Imperialist Republicans as Tom Reed, ex-President Harrison and Gen. Henderson.

The determination of the voters to retire Mark Hanna and McKinley will be accentuated in proportion as they examine the present growing depression in industry and realize the fact that the only way to stop this evil-one that is sweeping down upon the countryis to place in power a party whose policies will not only check but absolutely

redeemed. Prosperity more general and more abundant than we have ever known HAS FOLLOWED THESE ENACTMENTS." But another portion of this platform of 1900 says: "The volume of money in circulation was NEVER SO GREAT PER CAPITA AS IT IS TODAY." Here is the cause of the prosperity and the Administration did not cause the increase in the volume of money. This we shall show.

thwart the evil and at once place the country on the road to permanent prosperity-a prosperity that will be equitably shared by all the people and will continue year after year. The policies of the Reform party will do this, and much more. They will save the Republic and prevent the establishment of an Empire. They will also preserve the Monroe Doctrine and thereby all the Republics of America, thus preventing Militarism on this continent, a burden if fastened upon us that would exceed that under which the nations of Europe are now staggering. If our present policies are continued our condition will ultimately be worse than that of Eu

rope, for if the military spirit is to be accentuated and the smaller Republics of the hemisphere acquired by a few great Empires, including our own, there must be a proportionate increase in the burdens of the people.

At this point it may be well to call attention to the fact that before the preceding argument was placed before the reader there was presented the evidence in the case. It is proper to comment upon evidence after presentation and point out the results that are likely to occur if the conditions remain unchanged.

Let us now take up another portion of the case.

C. PROSPERITY CAUSED BY INCREASE IN THE VOLUME OF MONEY.

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During the four years of the especially hard times in the United States, i. e., from 1892 to July, 1896, the volume of money in the United States decreased 13 per cent per capita, but during the next three years it increased 22 per cent per capita. That is to say, from July, 1896, to March of this year there was this 22 per cent per capita increase in the volume of money in circulation. This important change is shown to the eye in the accompanying diagram. The Administration is jubilant over the large increase in the volume of money, but it conceals the fact that up to the campaign of 1896 there was a shrinking

*The Republican platform of this year states that "the volume of money in circulation was never so great per capita as it is today." This is an overstatement of the case, but it shows that the McKinley Administration admits the large increase in the volume of money. Its campaign book says: "The amount (of money) now in circulation is about $2,000,000,000. In the last four years the money in the hands of the people has increased $620,000,000, and the amount is increasing every day." But this book fails to state the further fact that for the three years previous to 1896 the volume of money decreased,

volume of money per capita, thus keeping out of sight the cause of the change from contraction, falling prices and hard times, to expansion, rising prices and good times, and while hiding this fact it proceeds to denounce the parties who in 1896 declared that the volume of money was shrinking and that therefore more money was needed.*

To get the full import of the fallacy the Administration is endeavoring to perpetrate upon the voters, let the reader turn to the chart showing the per capita circulation, place his pencil at the year 1896 and observe that from 1892 there was a shrinking volume of money with the resulting industrial

and President McKinley calls attention to the increase in the volume of money, but fails to note that there had been a decrease up to the time of the campaign of 1896. He says: "The volume of our currency is greater, per capita, than it has ever been. It was $21.10 in 1896. It had increased to $26.50 on July 1, 1900, and $26.85 on September 1, 1900. Our total money on July 1, 1896, was $1,506,434,966; on July 1, 1900, it was $2,062,425,496, and $2,096,683,042 on September 1, 1900. * * * Those things which are produced on the farm and in the workshop, and the labor producing them, have advanced in value [price]."

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