the self-subsistent stage of national life, and to judge whether those circumstances, as a matter of fact, do now or are likely in the future to exist.

Thus it may be regarded as a fact established by political economists, that unless a nation's own economic condition be such as to keep down its population within limits proportioned to the limits of its land, one of two results is certain to follow sooner or later; either it will have to suffer the miseries and hardships of over-population, or it will have to expand itself, and pass on into the third stage of national existence.

If it is to remain for long in the self-subsistent stage of national life, the prosperity and comfort of its people is dependent upon the existence of a powerful check upon the increase of population.

Now, putting aside the check which a very high moral condition and standard of comfort in a people would produce, as a thing which, however much to be desired and striven after, does not operate in any but the highest stages of civilisation; and looking at the facts of the case as they now are and for some time are likely to be, it appears to be established further that in a state of society in which men as they grow up can most readily marry and put themselves into a similar position to that of others around them-as when the whole population are detached from the land and work for weekly wages-population is most likely to increase rapidly, because there is the least check upon its increase.

But that in a state of society in which there are obstacles to early marriage, and men must wait till they have saved money or inherited the position of others before they can marry and place themselves in a similar position to those around them—as e. g. in a state of peasant proprietorship-population will remain most nearly stationary, because there will be the greatest check upon its increase.

Thus if the peasantry of a nation have emerged out of feudal serfdom into peasant proprietorship, and at the same time the proportion of town and trading population to the country population is small, you have a nation in which the population may well remain nearly stationary and the nation itself remain for a long period in the second or self-subsistent stage of national existence. While, should it have chanced that from any cause the proportion of town to country population is large, and at the same time the peasantry have not emerged out of feudal serfdom into peasant proprietorship, but have become detached from the soil and work at their own free will for weekly wages, you have a nation probably destined to increase rapidly in population, and which, if new channels of employment are not opened out as fast as population increases, will suffer the evils of overpopulation in all their force. If new channels of occupation are opened out as population increases, such a nation will quickly outgrow the limits of its land, and its prosperity will become more and more

rapidly dependent upon free international intercourse. In fact such a nation will be compelled to pass through the second stage into the third or most dependent one unless there be actual barriers against international intercourse strong enough to prevent it.

If there be effectual barriers against international intercourse, whatever their nature, nations will of course be forced at all costs to enter and remain in the self-subsistent state-suffering less or more according as the physical character of their country, and their own economic condition, favour a policy of self-subsistence or otherwise.

But inasmuch as these barriers, in the long run, inflict suffering and are removable, their removal is only a question of time. When the suffering is sufficiently keenly felt, nations will rise and break through them. They are not barriers placed by law of nature, irrevocably fixed-they are green withes which a Samson rising in his strength may shake off.

As a matter of fact these barriers are fast melting away. Commercial treaties and the spread of Free Trade doctrines are steadily doing their work.

And the result is that, as years roll on, the question of how long the great nations can continue in the self-subsistent stage of national life—of how soon they will be constrained to follow the steps of the

pioneer nations into the most dependent stage-is becoming more and more an economic question for each nation to answer according to its own economic condition. And the future of nations in this respect is therefore becoming more and more dependent upon causes having their root often far back in the past and less and less within the range of a nation's present choice or control.

It is believed that the rapid, but not necessarily on that account superficial, review of the actual facts of modern economic history contained in the following chapter, will not only illustrate, so far as is needful for the present purpose, the correctness of these general principles, but also leave no doubt on the mind of the reader as to what, under existing laws of nature, is the actual and inevitable tendency of modern international society.

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CHAPTER II.

I. INTRODUCTORY.

WHAT is the tendency of modern International Society? Are civilised nations likely to plod on as most of them have done for the past five centuries in the self-subsistent state? Or are they inevitably drifting towards a condition of greater and greater dependence on international intercourse?

It has been stated that in proportion as the barriers to free international intercourse give way before increasing intelligence, the answer to this question is more and more to be sought rather in the economic condition of the nations themselves than in the direct intention and policy of their rulers.

It is accordingly proposed in this chapter to pass in review the economic history and condition of modern nations. And as it may be convenient to do so in the order of their present dependence on international commerce, it is proposed to take the

case:

1st. Of those nations which have already entered the most dependent' stage of national life.