knew what he wrote about, and that is far more than do many of those who, on this side of the ocean, make th weather a medium wherewith to show forth their shallow wit. But it is the "old saw again illustrated, viz: "Where ignorance is bliss," etc., and with this remark we pass by, once and for all, the "weather quibbler." 66 This brings one to the question at issue just now, as the year 1878, with rapid strides, approaches its end: What kind of weather is in store for us during the winter of 1879; and what is likely to be the character of the succeeding summer? Now, before attempting to reply to this important and exceedingly difficult question, I wish to explain to my readers the preliminary steps or mental process gone through, always, in my endeavors to arrive at correct conclusions. First and foremost, then, I examine myself respecting impressions formed intuitively from recent out-door life. These I always find lurking in some corner of my mind, and ready to put themselves into shape when called for. On some occasions one of these in particular will foom up definitely above all others, and urge strongly its claims; while at other times a number present themselves, all equally plausible and likely. In rare instances I search and find no definite impressions formed, but all alike faint and flickering, and I may state here that on such occasions I feel considerable hesitation in hazarding a forecast. My first step, then, is to write down on a sheet of paper, off hand, the main impression or impressions which naturally occur to me. This is what some have called "guessing." It may be so; but if so, it is guessing" based upon out-door-not closet-experience, and consists of natural inferences from nature's laws. The forecast, however, thus written down, is not yet to be settled upon as the proper one; other steps are necessary. The next is to draw up from field notes an abstract of the actual weather experienced during the whole summer, noting carefully every leading feature. Has it been a year of drought, rains, heat or cold? Has it been marked by severe storms, or by calm equable weather? All are carefully noted, and averages are taken of temperature, rain fall, storms, etc. Newspaper clippings, covering the length and breadth of the Dominion, are next studied, and the various weather items sorted and systematically arranged for further reference. Now, from all these data, and guided by past experience in such matters, I write off another-a No. 2-forecast, in the preparation of which I do not allow myself to be in the slightest degree influenced by the first or No. I forecast. Next, setting these two forecasts aside and obliterating them entirely, if possible, from my mind, a third is prepared in the manner following: Diagrams of the weather of some 30 years are spread out and posted up on my study wall. These at a glance show the general characters of the past springs, summers and autumns, and further, the winters which have followed these. The diagram, say, of our last spring and summer, is in my hand, and the problem to be solved is embodied in the question now asked me, viz: What are our approaching autumn, winter and spring to be like? Most assuredly these will resemble in somes respects some of those which have preceded them. Sitting down in my easy chair in the middle of my room, I gaze long and earnestly at that terrible array of weather charts on my Friends come in and go away again, and as I have recently wall. THE AMERICAN NEWS COMPANY, PRC heard, repeat to other friends that "Vennor occupies most of his time sitting, pipe in mouth, gazing at the wall." And so he does, and so he probably will, until the "weather problem" is solved, and he can, with the mathematician of old, cry "Eureka! Eureka?" But to return to my chair. After hours, perhaps days, of patient comparison, I find what appears to suit the case in hand, namely, one or more years that sufficiently resemble, in their leading characteristics, the one we are enquiring about. From the diagrams of these I draw out the last, or No. 3 forecast, and the hardest portion of my task is done. now have three forecasts before me, perchance all similar, probably all diverse. No. I is the leading impression intuitively formed. I No. 2 consists of natural deductions from the actual weather experienced during the past season. No. 3 is based upon analogy and a close comparison of former weather charts. Are My manner of proceeding now is different in different cases. all forecasts fairly similar? Then I guide myself mainly by my first or leading impression. Are two, only, alike? Then I rearrange and form these into one. Are all different? Then I depend chiefly upon that naturally deduced from the action of the past six months. In this way are my general outlines formed. Further details, which I have several times attempted during the winter, have been chiefly deduced from the comparison of the weather charts of past years, but this has been found to be an insecure basis to build upon, and I have, as I deserved to, failed repeatedly in these attempts. But I here maintain that my general outlines for the years 1875, '76, '77 and '78, have been in the main correct, although I have on several occasions spoiled the effect of these by subsequent attempts to give them in greater detail. THE WINTER AND SPRING OF 1878-79. This year my three forecasts of the weather all agree in their leading indications, and consequently out of these I have simply to construct one that will stand for all. I find before me a year signalized by intense and protracted heat, a long period of drought, and by great electrical disturbances in the form of a continuous succession of thunder and lightning storms of great severity, these last continuing up to an unusually late period. Now, from the extreme heat and drought, I deduce extreme cold, and slight precipitation for a portion of our coming winter; while from the frequent electrical disturbances I deduce open warm weather and rains. The only difficulty now, is to allot to these very opposite meteorological conditions their respective positions in the programme of the coming winter. I am of the opinion that the fore part of the winter will be severely cold with heavy snow falls. Therefore the rivers will probably close at a very much earlier date than last season. December ought to give some severe cold and heavy snow falls, particularly-as in 1876-towards the latter part of the month; and these snow storms will probably extend through a considerable portion of the United States. The early portion of January is likely to continue severe and give us more snow, shortly after which I look for a great lull or break in the winter, with singularly open weather and a rapid melting of the snow-possibly to bare ground again. This term will be protracted and much more extended than our usual mid-winter thaw. A portion of February and March will give us a second edition of winter with very severe weather and further heavy snow falls, thus protracting the winter season and causing a backward spring. The spring will set in wet, and is likely to be succeeded by a cool wet summer. BUCKINGHAM, Nov. 6тн, 1878. H. G. VENNor. P. S.-My impression respecting a very singular and open turn in the winter season-possibly with rains-is very prominent, but I cannot attempt to locate this with precision. It is likely, however, it will embrace a portion of January and February. It is possible also that this break, instead of being confined to one uninterrupted turn, may be distributed over the winter months as during the past summer, producing many sudden changes from warm to very cold weather. VENNOR'S PREDICTION FOR THE UNITED STATES. To the Argus:— In Canada we have already had two distinct belts of wintry weather with snow and severe frosts. The first of these embraced the Lake Temiscamang region and rear parts of Pontiac and Ottawa counties. This spell set in towards the latter portion of October. The second occurred in the early part of November, and embraced a broad belt of country so e miles to the southward of the first, over which snows fell abundantly. This time, along the St. Lawrence valley and in the Western States was marked by a terrible downfall of rain with, in many places, destructive floods. A third belt of wintry weather with heavy snow falls will probably occur towards the latter part of December, and it is my impression that this will take in a large portion of New York and bordering States, the snow falls possibly extending, as they did in 1876, as far south as Washington, D. C. I think the approaching winter will be exceedingly eccentric, with great and abrupt rises and falls of temperature. Consequently we may look forward to being frozen and thawed out again at the shortest possible notice. The spring of 1879 is likely to be backward and wet, ushering in a cool and likewise rainy summer. MONTREAL, DEC. 13, 1878. HENRY G. VENNOR. In another column will be found a letter from Prof. Vennor, the Canadian weather prophet, whose prognostigations have hitherto attracted much attention. Many of his previous predictions have been verified with strange accuracy, and those which, by his favor, we are enabled to present to the public this morning will be watched with interest.—Argus, Albany, Ñ. Y., 15th Dec., 1878. THE AMERICAN NEWS COMPANY, Publis Agents, New York, THE UNITED States signal sERVICE. The Signal Service, United States Army, was formed for the purpose of giving protection to commerce, by warnings on all the lakes and sea coasts of the United States, to watch the river changes, to note, at seasons, the temperature affecting canal commerce, to carry telegraphic lines, by which meteorological reports may be had over regions considered impracticable for such constructions; to maintain a system of connecting stations on the sea coast; to take charge of the recognized system of voluntary meteorological observations on this continent in addition to the regular system of the Service; to secure the cooperation of observers in foreign countries; to endeavor to aid directly all the farming population in the harvesting of their crops; and finally, to put it in the power of every citizen to know each day, with reasonable accuracy, the approaching weather changes. In order to perform these duties, there are in all 171 stations in the United States, which are classed as follows: Stations making full telegraphic reports, 92; making observations and reporting, by mail, 15; printing, stations at which observations are not made, 3; special river stations, 23; stations or telegraph lines, 38. Reports are also received from seven stations in the West Indies, six of them making full telegraphic reports; and from sixteen British American stations, all but one reporting by telegraph. Before sending men to the different stations they have to undergo a course of instruction and practice at Fort Whipple, Va., U. S. The 171 stations mentioned above are maintained at the average cost of $424.03 each year, exclusive of the telegraphic expenses and the pay and maintenance of the men. A force of 206 men is constantly employed, 103 of whom are sergeants; 9 corporals, and 94 privates of the United States Army. Brigadier-General A. J Myer, U.S A., acts as chief signal officer. The duties of the men at each station are defined as follows: "At stations forwarding telegraphic reports they are required to take, put in cipher, and furnish, to be telegraphed tri-daily on each day at different fixed times, the results of the observations made at those times, and embracing in each case the readings of the barometer, of the thermometer, the winds velocity and direction, the rain gauge, the relative humidity, the character, quantity and movement of upper and lower clouds, and the condition of the weather." The observations being taken at Washington meantime come therefore earlier at some points and later at others, making the observations simultaneous all over the country. Besides the duties enumerated above, there are three observations to be taken each day at the hours of 7 a.m., 2 p.m., and 9 p.m. At noon each day an observation is taken to notice any instrumental changes which may require to be reported. At stations at which cautionary signals are displayed, an observer must be constantly on hand to receive the order and show the signal which may be ordered. At the river stations a record of the temperature and depth is made, and reported at 3 p.m. each day. In addition to this, each station has to forward to the central office in New York city, a weekly and monthly report containing a digest of the observations taken. The head office, at which General Meyer is to be found, occupies the top flat of the immense building of the Equitable Life Assurance Company, from which lofty height an unobstructed view of the city and surroundings can be had. It also affords a conspicuous place for the display of the cautionary signal, which can be seen quite plainly from all parts of the harbor. The lantern, displaying a red light, is 195 feet above the sea level; the flag-rig, with a black centre, floats from an elevation of 235 feet. The instrument room is situated under the lantern, and built with open apertures, so that the air has free access. In this room are placed the standard, the maximum and minimum, with the wet and dry bulb thermometers. The maximum and minimum thermometers are so arranged, by simple contrivances, that they register the highest and lowest readings. The wet and dry bulb thermometers serve to mark the relative humidity of the air; thus on one occasion the dry bulb marked 82° and the wet 70°, a relative humidity of 52 per cent. Placed out upon the roof is the funnel-shaped rain guage, the wind vane, the anemometer, by which is determined the velocity of the wind. By an ingenious contrivance this instrument is self-registering. There is in the New York Office a rare and splendid instrument in the shape of a self-registering barometer. The cylinders are made to revolve by clockwork. On one is given the register of the changes for a day, and on the other for a period of fifteen days. In this, as in the anemometer, the connections are made by electricity. All the telegraphic reports of the Service are made in cipher, in order to save time and trouble, as well as to insure accuracy. POKING FUN AT VENNOR. Many journalists, whose publications were not usually filled to overflowing with interesting news, and who were actually becoming rusty for something to write about, hailed with delight the advent of Mr. Vennor to the front in the role of "weather prophet." As long as the weather followed the course that had been mapped out for it by Mr. Vennor, the newspaper men unanimously declared that he was a "trump," and that all along they had a notion that any observant man might with accuracy speak as to the weather probabilities for days, weeks, or even months to come. Of course they knew just on what basis he built his calculations, &c., &c. As long as Mr. Vennor's star was in the ascendency, numerous journalistic satellites were found who were only too willing to borrow light from the "weather prophet," and some of them issued prophesies of their own which they declared were Vennorisms." The scene changed, how 66 THE AMERICAN NEWS COMPANY," Publis Agents, New York, |