and do not include the imports and exports conveyed through Germany en route for other coun

tries.

The imports of agricultural and forest produce amount to 2,000,000,000 marks after the ex

amounted to upward of 2,300,000,000 marks. A certain portion of the raw materials of manufacture have to be imported-silk and cotton, for instance-because they cannot be produced in Germany. As a result of her whole industrial development, Germany is compelled to extend her international trade relations; she must import food to feed her increasing population and export her manufactures. She is vitally interested in being free to compete with other nations in foreign markets, and as German trade shows a spirit of enterprise as great as that of England, she must in her own interest be as free from all hampering trade restrictions as England is. This conviction is gaining ground now among our merchants and manufacturers. It has led to the conclusion of a number of commercial treaties with other nations, some of which are tariff treaties, fixing the duties to be levied on certain classes of goods for a number of years; others are treaties with the clause of the most favored nation.

Count Caprivi has earned imperishable laurels by inaugurating a policy of commercial treaties in the beginning of the 90s, but against his

(Leader of the Industrial wing of the Conservatives.) ports of the same kind of produce have been deducted. Of the above total about 500,000,000 marks are to be expended on grain; 200,000,000 marks on legumes, oil-seed, etc.; about 100,000,000 marks on manure; from 60,000,000 to 70,000,000 marks on fruits and wine; 300,000,000 marks on live-stock and manufactured products used as animal food; 400,000,000 marks on wool, hides, bristles, hair, animal entrails, etc.; about 120,000,000 marks on fowls and their products; about 200,000,000 marks on forest produce. On the other hand, German forestry and agriculture together only yield produce to the amount of 6,000,000,000 marks. The deficit in the supply has to be met by imports from abroad; these amount at the present moment to about one-third of the produce raised at home.

The deficit between demand and supply increases, of course, from year to year, as the population grows at the rate of 750,000 every year. On the other hand, agricultural produce cannot be largely increased in amount by improvements in cultivation in Germany.

COUNT POSADOWSKY, Home Secretary.

policy all agrarian parties are uniting with increasing bitterness in their opposition. The agrarian protectionists control the Conservative party in Parliament completely; they are strongly represented in the Center, or Catholic, party, and are not without a considerable following among the National Liberals. The Antisemitic party,

A HOPELESS REACTION MOVEMENT.

The agrarian protectionists not only wish to annul the commercial treaties, because these hinder them from raising the protective duties on agricultural imports (these duties are by no means low-for instance, 35 marks per ton on rye or wheat), but the extreme members of the party advocate the abolition of the gold standard and the adoption of a so-called bimetallic-in reality a silver-standard. The most rabid among them oppose the cutting of canals, because foreign produce would thus enter Germany on cheaper terms. In short, the agrarian protectionists oppose the natural evolution of all economic progress. They are the natural allies of all the reactionary elements in Germany, the worst enemies of material progress and of political development in consequence.

I must point out another circumstance deserving attention. The old Prussian feudal aristocracy (Junkerthum), forming the pith and marrow of the agrarian movement, has never been well off; but for the last twenty years they have suffered from the competition with the whole world, which is felt so keenly in all old countries, in the reduction of the rent of land.

They have sunk deeper and deeper into debt, while the standard of material comfort has risen throughout all classes in Germany. The Junker" has long since given up the hope of making both ends meet by his own industry, and while endeavoring to raise the rent of land by various kinds of protective measures, he is really at the same time struggling for bread-and-butter and upholding a tradition of political supremacy.

No government can really satisfy these claims, and hence each in turn is compelled, sooner or later, to oppose the agrarian movement. However, considering the strong influence the Prussian Junker" exerts in the army, in the ranks of government officials, and at court, practical statesmen deem it advisable to avoid any open rupture with the pack of famished wolves. The fate of conservative statesmen such as Count Caprivi and Freiherr von Marschall, whose political conscience compelled them to pursue an anti-agrarian policy, is not likely to tempt other statesmen to follow an energetic policy in opposition to the agrarians. And thus it comes about that the imperial government, and still more the government of the largest state within the federation, Prussia, are both inclined to conceal their real convictions as to the impossibility of complying with the extreme agrarians' demands.

Men in government circles are inclined to dally with them and offer them here and there a sop, so as to ward off their dangerous enmity, and if possible to create a little good-will toward the government.

MIQUEL AND THE "JUNKERS."

The most skillful representative of our present opportunist policy is Herr von Miquel, Prussian Minister of Finance and Vice-President of the Prussian Cabinet. He is at the present moment the most influential statesman in Germany. As may be inferred from the name, French blood flows in his veins; his personality is a compound

HERR VON MIQUEL,

Prussian Minister of Finance.

of the northern Saxon and the southern Gascon. Born in the province of Hanover, in modest circumstances, he rose to be one of the leaders of the National Liberal party, and was for some years engaged in the direction of one of our largest banks, the Disconto-Kommanditgesellschaft. Shortly before becoming a minister of state he discharged the duties of the chief magistrate of the city of Frankfurt-on-the-Main.

a

This statesman of seventy is endowed with a sharp intellect and great powers of eloquence, coupled with a large amount of political skepticism that so often helps a man to secure small political successes and debars him from attaining great ones. By numerous small concessions and decorous parliamentary treatment of their fads he basks in the full sunlight of agrarian favor. The agrarians persuade themselves that Herr von Miquel will do more for them than he can-or has any intention of doing-but in the meantime he keeps them in good humor and prevents them from disturbing his spheres of influence.

But all these skirmishes are only so many pauses on the eve of the great political struggle which must one day be undertaken with the "Junkers," that old Prussian remnant of feudalism, economically and politically an anachronism in modern society. The fate of the "Junker" was sealed, notwithstanding any partial successes, ever since Germany began her mighty march for ward on the lines of industrial progress. Not all the dust cast up by our petty party wrangling can conceal the magnitude of those wider issues which have been really raised by the rapid industrial development of the country.

All our political parties are undergoing a process of change, and it is only a question of time when they will make room for larger groups. The two most interesting phenomena in the field of German politics are the inevitable decay of the old Prussian landed aristocracy (Junkerthum) on the one hand, and the ascendency of Social Democracy on the other. Both these phenomena are intimately connected with the evolution of Germany as an agricultural country into a modern industrial state. Both phenomena are products of natural development which certainly are calculated to bring about political crises, but they do not threaten the existence of the German empire. The German nation is sound at heart and in vigorous health. There is every reason for a German to look forward with hopeful trust not only to the economic, but also to the political development of his country in the future.

FOREIGN POLICY.

When Prince Bismarck's dismissal by Emperor Wilhelm II. in 1890 removed what had long

been the most prominent figure in the European concert, the opinion was entertained in many quarters that the states of Germany would suffer in consequence in the eyes of other nations. Experience has not borne out this opinion, nor do Germany's diplomatic relations with other countries afford any cause for uneasinesss. Facts prove that her status is determined by the degree of potential power she can throw into the scale of European deliberations, and that the greater or less diplomatic skill of individual statesmen is a secondary consideration.

The relations of the German empire to the great military states of Europe are imperfectly shown by the grouping of countries known as the Triple Alliance and Dual Alliance. The Triple Alliance, comprising Austria-Hungary, Italy, and Germany at its head, is not really inimical to the Dual Alliance between France and Russia. However desirable it may be for Russia to have a willing ally, capable alike from a military as from a financial point of view, she cannot possibly wish to entangle herself in a war with her western neighbors, Germany and Austria-Hungary. Russia is preeminently Great Britain's rival in Asia, while the political interests of Germany and Russia come nowhere into serious collision. To assume that Russia will make an enemy of Germany simply to help France to regain Alsace-Lorraine would be to offer a gratuitous affront to Russian diplomatic skill. France will avoid attacking Germany

FREIHERR VON THIELMANN, Secretary of the Exchequer.

single-handed. The experiences of 1870-71 were not tempting enough, and in the meantime Germany's population has increased by about 12,000,000 since then, while that of France has remained well-nigh stationary.

The danger of a rupture of European peace is not great at the present moment, nor are any serious fears entertained in this direction. Nevertheless we cannot dream for a moment that our armed millions will be even partially disbanded or disarmed. With a few exceptions everybody in Germany is convinced of the truth of the sentence, Si vis pacem, para bellum!" and no movement of any weight exists in favor of disarmament. The heavy expenditure on our armaments is borne as a hard necessity. We know full well that it involves our national existence. The German army is probably the most highly trained, as well as the promptest in action, in Europe; and even although enormous sums are required for the support of this army-our military budget for the year 1898-99 exceeds 600, 000,000 marks-Germans console themselves with the thought that it is the price of peace, and that other nations pay still more for similar objects. Does not the pension list of the United States show a greater expenditure than our military budget? Leaning on such a terrible weapon as the army, every possible government in Germany may pursue European diplomacy with some tranquillity of mind.

For a long time past the southeastern corner of

Europe has been the volcanic center whence outbursts threatening European peace have come, and not a little diplomatic cool-headedness is necessary to prevent that ever-smoldering fire from assuming dangerous proportions. Prince Bismarck once employed the metaphor with

FREIHERR VON BUOL-BERENBERG,

President of the Reichstag.

reference to the Eastern question, the settlement of the Balkan Peninsula is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian musketeer in the eyes of Germany; and the present foreign secretary, Herr von Bülow, lately said in Parliament that Germany had only undertaken the part of flutist in the orchestral performance of Turkish music; should serious discords arise in the European concert, then the flutist would lay down his flute on the table and leave the concert-room. course this play of diplomatic fancy must not be literally construed. The concert-room is Europe, and Germany cannot leave her place vacant. She is also too powerful to look calmly on with folded

arms.

Of

Besides, Turkey is linked to Germany by many economic interests. German capital is largely invested in railroads both in Turkey and in Asia

Minor, under the direction of the Deutsche Bank. Among other things, the railroads of Anatolia are under the control of the above-mentioned bank.

Absolute passivity in the Eastern question is therefore economically and politically impossible for Germany. Nevertheless, of all European countries concerned in the matter, Germany is least involved, because- -as Bismarck once saidthe German national edifice does not front the Mediterranean Sea.

Entanglements with other countries may proceed from trade and commercial questions for Germany if the agrarians in our midst should succeed in their protectionist policy by initiating a war of prohibitive duties. But also in this matter facts are stronger than infatuated politicians, and although threats of a tariff war, mostly directed against the United States, are not wanting either in Parliament or in the press, they find little support in the country. There is no reason to believe that any of our leading statesmen have any inclination toward a commercial policy ab irato.

The more complicated and delicate the economic and political organization of the larger European nations becomes, the more will a peaceful development of their resources appear to them a prime necessity. The countless threads woven between nations by economic interests lead them irresistibly to the conclusion that the violent interruption of intercourse between two nations-even by prohibitive duties is an act of consummate folly, and few statesmen are willing to accept the responsibility of initiating even a war of tariffs, let alone a real war.

In the interesting notes written by Francis Ayme, the former French teacher of Emperor Wilhelm II., the following remark, made by the Prince, then seventeen years of age, is given: "Ministers who provoke a war should be forced to oppose one another in single battle, and in the literal sense of the word stake their lives on the issue." I venture to assert that the thought of fighting a duel would commend itself more readily to any of our present ministers of the crown than the thought of the fearful responsibility of bringing about a war on a European scale, with the precision of modern implements of destruction. A realization of the appalling devastation which must ensue is the greatest guarantee for peace. BERLIN, March 1, 1898.