Sir Antony Macdonnell, whose presence at the Castle as temporary Under-Secretary was regarded with profound distrust by many Unionists, but who, in the judgment of impartial observers, appeared to be successfully endeavouring to steer an even keel in Ireland. It was commended in the Times (Oct. 11 and 16) by Sir West Ridgway, formerly Under-Secretary for Ireland, but condemned by Lord Londonderry (Oct. 14), and in very strong terms by the Irish Attorney-General (Oct. 31). He suggested, but the idea was indignantly repudiated by Colonel Hutcheson Poë (Times, Nov. 5), that the Irish Reform" scheme was part of an understanding by which the adherence of the Nationalist leaders had been secured to the Purchase scheme agreed upon at the Land Convention. In Nationalist quarters the Dunraven project excited a certain amount of gratified interest as illustrating-which indeed it did—a modification of temper and attitude on the part of a section of the Irish country gentry, which might quite conceivably proceed farther, as land purchase became more general; but it was much too limited to allow of its being treated as, in itself, of important value. Whatever the future might have in store, the Irish Reform movement was at present only a symptom, though one well deserving of study.

Among minor events may be mentioned the release of Arthur Lynch (Jan. 21), and the return of O'Donovan Rossa to end his days in Ireland. The Fiscal agitation left Ireland practically untouched, though a Tariff Reform Association was formed early in the year. The Nationalist attitude was explained by Mr. Redmond in the debate on the Address (p. 41).

The population statistics of the decade 1891-1900 inclusive, issued towards the end of the year by the Registrar-General, showed that the natural increase of the population was outbalanced in the ratio of nearly two to one by emigration; 433,526 persons had emigrated during the decade, or 9.5 per thousand of the mean population. The birth rate was 23 per thousand, the marriage rate 4.84 per thousand, the average death rate 18.25 per thousand, being highest in Leinster and lowest in Connaught.

A proposal to hold an International Exhibition in Dublin in 1906 was strongly opposed by a section of Hibernian opinion, including the Gaelic League, which preferred a purely Irish exhibition, and by some local traders and manufacturers, who feared outside competition. An extremely disorderly meeting held in its support in Dublin on March 22 was ultimately cleared by the police, but the project came to nothing. It was stated at the end of the year that a National exhibition was being organised. A pleasanter aspect of Irish industrial development was afforded by the annual "Arts and Crafts" dinner on January 18, at which Mr. Wyndham expressed his hopes for a revival of Irish art. The Gaelic League displayed a commendable activity, even if somewhat tainted by

party politics, in reviving Irish games and the Irish drama, and the study of Irish literature, and by the end of the year, through the munificence of Miss Horniman, Dublin possessed a theatre for the performance of plays specially connected with Ireland.

An appeal was made by the Irish (Protestant) Church for an endowment of 250,000l., to cover the losses of the Sustentation Fund incidental to the extinction of mortgages by the operation of the Land Purchase Act. The nave of Belfast Cathedral, erected at a cost of about 30,000l., was consecrated on June 2. In the Roman Catholic Church preparations were made for the canonisation of various Irish martyrs, which the Vatican was expected to accord during 1905.

In trade the year presented no very conspicuous features. In September alarming reports were current as to an impending depression in shipbuilding at Belfast, but it was explained that these were due to the rapid completion of certain large steamers (including the Baltic, the largest vessel yet launched, and the Dunluce Castle), and the consequent discharge of a number of extra hands. The repairs of the American liner St. Louis at Belfast in December (on which, it was falsely reported, the United States Government intended to claim customs duty), provoked comparisons with American work and cost in the industry, which were entirely favourable to Belfast. The total shipping output for Ireland was 78,244 tons, nearly all at Belfast. It included the Allan liner Victorian (12,000 tons), the first large turbine steamer ever launched for ocean traffic. The linen trade was not, on the whole, unprosperous, but the home supply of flax continued to decrease. The shirt trade of Londonderry was depressed, partly through the shortage of cotton, and partly through a growing preference for woollen clothing. Some stimulus was afforded to Irish agricultural export through the establishment of steamship lines from Heysham harbour, near Morecambe, to Belfast, Londonderry and Dublin, and an even greater benefit was hoped for to the South of Ireland by the coming inauguration of the new Great Western fast service via Fishguard and Rosslare. Agricultural prices were low. Towards the end of the year serious distress was reported in Connaught and elsewhere, and an appeal was made both in Ireland and in America for contributions towards its relief.

SUPPLEMENTARY CHAPTER.

FINANCE AND TRADE IN 1904.

THE merit of 1904, from the business point of view, was that it witnessed a gradual return to confidence both in financial and commercial circles. The early months seemed hopeless, but by the close of December a great deal of the depression had given place to cheerfulness. When one comes to examine the basis for the return to confidence one is obliged to admit that it is

not very broad or firm. At the close of the year there were indications of improvement, but they were not so definite as might have been wished. I think that the good moral effect of the year arose principally from the fact that business, as tested by figures, was much better than had been expected. Men were in fact agreeably surprised that conditions were not much worse. There was a striking contrast with 1903, a year which became steadily worse as the months drew on. The year 1904, on the other hand, became steadily better. Foreign trade, especially the exports of manufactures, was better in the last quarter of the year than in any of the previous quarters; bankers' clearinghouse returns also were better in the last quarter. It also happened that correspondents in close touch with the great manufacturing centres of the United Kingdom-such as those whose weekly letters are published in the Financial and Commercial Supplement of the Times-sent reports which were almost universally more favourable in tone, and these were regarded as forecasting improved trade for the year 1905. One rather serious feature, which made many cautious judges doubt whether any real advance in trade had been gained, was the large amount of skilled labour unemployed at the end of 1904. On the whole, however, the balance of opinion in well-informed quarters was that the year 1904 marked the lowest point in the downward half of the trade cycle, and that one may fairly safely expect a return to the expanding half of the cycle.

Much controversy has raged about the Board of Trade returns of foreign trade. The actual figures constituted a "record," a fact which is very striking in itself, since on paper the two previous years also produced records. Imports of colonial and foreign merchandise were valued at 551,362,000l., an increase of 8,762,000l., or 1.6 per cent. over those for 1903, and the exports of British and Irish produce were 300,818,000l., an increase of 10,018,000l., or 3.4 per cent. Re-exports of foreign and colonial merchandise amounted to 70,322,000l., an increase of 748,000l., or 11 per cent. While it can be clearly proved that part of the increase in values was due to the higher prices of several commodities in 1904, as compared with the two previous years, there yet remains a substantial advance which must be credited to more business. The Economist, by actual computation of values-not by estimates-has shown that of the imports in 1904 a gain of 5,400,000l., in comparison with 1903, was due to greater quantities, and an increase of 3,362,000l. was owing to higher prices. In the same way it was shown that 8,150,000l. out of the increase in the total values of exports was due to greater quantities, and only 1,868,000l. to higher prices.

Trade depends so much on "cheap money "-that is to say, on the cheapness and facility with which advances may be obtained and bills discounted-that the easiness of the money market during the greater part of 1904 contributed no doubt to

assist any improvement. The Bank of England minimum rate of discount stood at 3 per cent. from April 21, 1904, until the end of the year. The amounts, too, of investment money available for the Stock Exchange showed that the savings of the country were overtaking the immense drain of the South African war, and were not altogether crushed out by the large increase in taxation. The rapid increase in the gold output of the Transvaal, which for the year under consideration overtopped the value won in 1899, contributed materially to keep London well supplied with gold. London had comparatively little to do with the financing of the war in the Far East. Japan placed two loans-half in London and half in New York-but as the total amount was only 22,000,000l., and the terms were favourable to investors, these issues were readily subscribed. Most of the proceeds of these loans were left in London, and a considerable part was temporarily invested by the Japanese in British Treasury bills. France and Germany enjoyed the privilege of financing Russia.

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On the Stock Exchange the early months of the year were marked by an almost total absence of interest. The market for gilt-edged" stocks was glutted by heavy South African war loans, which the public have not yet absorbed, and the market for South African mining shares seemed hopelessly out of favour. In the absence of both investor and speculator the Stock Exchange found little to do. And yet the success of various high-class issues early in the year showed that there was a considerable amount of capital awaiting investment. In the early autumn speculative activity began to revive under the lead of New York, and American railroad securities were the first to feel the new impetus. The advances during the year in this department were very large, but were ultimately surpassed by those in several of the South American railway stocks. In the Foreign Government department there were also notable advances, principally due to the revival of interest in Argentine and Brazil. Japanese stocks, first depressed by the war with Russia, afterwards recovered under the influence of continuous naval and military successes. Japanese Four per Cents. closed the year within a point of the price at which they began it, having recovered as much as 14 from the lowest point touched. Russian Fours, on the other hand, were 63 lower on the year. It may, however, be noted that Russian securities were so well supported on the Continent— where they are almost exclusively held, and where Russian credit remained unshaken-that the price of the Four per Cents. was 914 on December 31 last, as compared with Japanese Fours at 76 on the same day.

British Consols have not yet recovered from the big blocks of new stock created during the Transvaal war, and were less in favour with investors than some other British public securities such as Irish Land stock, Transvaal Guaranteed

Three per Cents. and Local Loans stock-which yield over 3 per cent. per annum at the current prices, as against an average of about 21. 16s. per cent. from Consols. The lowest point reached by Consols was 85, touched early in March, and the highest was 91 on June 1. At the close of the year the price was 881, an advance of on the twelve months.

If one turns now to individual industries, the trade which specially requires mention is that of Cotton. It is necessary to go back to the American Civil War period to recall conditions of "famine" such as those prevailing in Lancashire during the greater part of 1904. In no year in the history of the industry has there been such a violent contrast between the abundant prosperity with which 1904 ended and the extreme depression previously experienced. At present the industry depends to so large an extent on American raw cotton that the shortage of supplies in the United States-due to a series of scanty crops and the inevitable efforts of speculators to "corner" what there was-simply paralysed the trade. In February, 1904, American raw cotton was at the enormous price of 8.96d. per lb., and though prices soon began to fall, they were still so high, and supplies so short, that Lancashire mills were put on "short time," and many were only kept going at all with great difficulty. The United States cotton crop for the season 1903-4 was only 10,124,000 bales, and the world's requirements of it are about 11,000,000 bales. It was not till the new crop for the season 1904-5 began to come forward, and was known to be of "record" size-the official Government estimates were 12,162,000 bales, and the actual crop is believed to approach 13,000,000 bales-that prices came down with a run, and Lancashire mills received the raw material for which they had been hungering. At the close of the year American raw cotton was at 3.77d. per lb., and supplies were then ample for many months' consumption. In September, as soon as the American abundance came in sight, the cotton trade began to make up for lost time, and when the year ended British spinners and weavers were full of work at profitable margins. Indeed, except as regards that part of the trade dependent on fine Egyptian cotton (which was scarce and high in price), the cotton industry became highly prosperous.

The very serious consequences of a too great dependence of the British cotton industry on American grown raw material was forcibly brought home by the experiences of 1904, and a promising movement has been set on foot to encourage the growth of cotton in several British Colonies and Dependencies. As the result of this movement the British Cotton Growing Association was formed, and is now actively at work. There is no doubt that a very large part of the British Empire is suited for the growth of cotton, and it is much to be hoped that the momentary relief arising from the abundant American crop of 1904-5 will not cause any slackening in the effort ultimately